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Academy Level 2 · Reading a business · Lesson 9 of 20 · 7 min

Separate reported facts from your assumptions

Separating what a company reported from what you are assuming, and the ratios worth checking before anything else.

Financial statements are the only part of stock research that is not an opinion. Everything else — the valuation, the projection, the price target — is an assumption wearing a number. Keeping those two categories apart is most of what separates research from storytelling.

Financial analysis is most useful when every number has a clear status. ImpliedLens distinguishes observed provider data, derived calculations, modeled estimates, and user scenarios.

What to look at

The shape of it

Per-share value = Business economics × defensible assumptions ÷ diluted shares

An example

If annual EPS is stale but four newer reported quarters are complete, the valuation can use disclosed trailing-four-quarter actual EPS instead.

Where people go wrong

Revenue growth without cash flow, returns on capital, balance-sheet context, and dilution can create a misleading quality impression.

Everything on this site that comes from a filing is labeled with its source and the date it was pulled. When a figure is modeled rather than reported, it says so. That distinction is worth more than any single ratio.

Check your understanding

1. Which of these is a reported fact rather than an assumption?

Show answer

Last year's revenue from the 10-K. Only figures from filings are reported. Forecasts and fair multiples are assumptions.

2. Revenue is growing but free cash flow and returns on capital are falling. What does this suggest?

Show answer

Growth may be getting more expensive. Growth without cash or returns can mask a weakening business.

Try it now

Open Financials for any company and find one reported figure and one figure the site calculated from it. Check the source badge on each.

Open Financials →