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AAPL Apple Inc.+1.8%

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Write the investment thesis

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8 min · Foundation

Value the business

Use multiples and DCF without falling for false precision.

14 min · Valuation

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Size positions and write down what can break the thesis.

9 min · Risk

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Use filings, financials, and scenarios to challenge it.

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Base Case Earnings growth %/yr Exit P/E terminal multiple

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Quick reference

Investor glossary

P/E ratioPrice paid for each dollar of earnings. Compare against growth, history, and peers.Price ÷ EPS

Free cash flowCash remaining after operating needs and capital spending.Operating cash flow − Capex

ROICHow efficiently a business turns invested capital into operating profit.NOPAT ÷ Invested capital

EV / EBITDAA capital-structure-neutral multiple useful for peer comparisons.Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA

DCFA present-value model for future cash flows. Best used as a range, not a point estimate.Σ FCFt ÷ (1 + WACC)t

Margin of safetyThe discount between your conservative value estimate and the market price.(Value − Price) ÷ Value

WACCA blended required return for debt and equity capital, used to discount enterprise cash flows.WdKd(1 − tax) + WeKe

Terminal growthThe perpetual growth assumption after the explicit forecast period. It should remain conservative.TV = FCFn+1 ÷ (WACC − g)

CAGRThe constant annual rate that connects a starting value to an ending value.(End ÷ Start)^(1 ÷ years) − 1

BetaA historical estimate of sensitivity to broad-market returns, not a complete measure of risk.Cov(stock, market) ÷ Var(market)

FCF yieldFree cash flow relative to market value. Useful for comparing cash generation with price.Free cash flow ÷ Market cap

DilutionGrowth in share count that reduces each existing share's claim on earnings and cash flow.(New shares ÷ Old shares) − 1

Advanced valuation and analysis methods used by professional investors.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

DCF estimates the intrinsic value of a company by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return (WACC). If the intrinsic value exceeds the current price, the stock may be undervalued. Small changes in assumptions (growth rate, discount rate) dramatically affect the result — always run multiple scenarios.

Intrinsic Value = Σ [FCF_t ÷ (1 + WACC)^t] + [Terminal Value ÷ (1 + WACC)ⁿ]

EV/EBITDA Multiple

Enterprise Value to EBITDA is a capital-structure-neutral valuation multiple. It's preferred over P/E when comparing companies with different debt levels. A lower EV/EBITDA relative to peers may indicate undervaluation. Typical ranges vary widely: 8–12x for mature industrials, 20–40x+ for high-growth tech companies.

EV = Market Cap + Debt − Cash | EV/EBITDA = EV ÷ EBITDA

Return on Equity (ROE) & ROIC

ROE measures profit relative to shareholder equity, while ROIC compares after-tax operating profit with the capital required to run the business. High ROE can be amplified by leverage or a reduced equity base. Sustained ROIC above the cost of capital is stronger evidence of value creation.

ROE = Net Income ÷ Shareholders Equity | ROIC = NOPAT ÷ Invested Capital

Technical Analysis: Moving Averages

The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages summarize intermediate and long-term trend direction. Crossovers describe a change in trend structure, but they are lagging observations rather than reliable forecasts. Use them with volume, volatility, and the business thesis.

RSI - Relative Strength Index

RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a 0–100 scale. Readings above 70 or below 30 describe unusually strong or weak momentum; they are context, not automatic sell or buy signals. RSI can remain extreme in persistent trends, so confirm it with price structure, volume, and the investment thesis.

RSI = 100 − [100 ÷ (1 + Average Gain ÷ Average Loss)]

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that compares two exponential moving averages, typically 12-day and 26-day periods. Signal-line crossovers and divergences describe changing momentum, but they can produce repeated false signals in sideways markets.

MACD = 12-day EMA − 26-day EMA | Signal = 9-day EMA of MACD

Comparable Company Analysis (Comps)

Comps involves valuing a company by comparing it to publicly traded peers using multiples like P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, and P/FCF. Select peers with similar business models, growth rates, and margins. Apply the peer median multiple to your company's metrics to derive an implied share price range. Used alongside DCF for a range of value estimates.

Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is the discount between market price and a conservative value estimate. The required discount should reflect business quality, balance-sheet risk, forecast uncertainty, and the reliability of the valuation method. A wider discount can reduce model risk, but it cannot eliminate thesis risk.

Driver-Based Forecasting

Build forecasts from operating drivers instead of extending a headline growth rate. Start with units, customers, price, or market share; then connect revenue to gross margin, operating expenses, taxes, reinvestment, and share count. Each assumption should have an observable source and a review date.

Revenue = Volume x Price | EPS = Net income / Diluted shares

Model Audit and Sensitivity

A model is decision support, not a prediction. Check units and signs, reconcile starting values, inspect terminal-value dependence, and run a two-way sensitivity table for the assumptions that matter most. If a small input change reverses the conclusion, the position requires a wider margin of safety.

Sensitivity = Change in output / Change in assumption

Per-Share Economics

Company growth does not automatically become shareholder growth. Compare revenue, free cash flow, and earnings growth with diluted share-count growth. Buybacks create value only when shares are repurchased below conservative intrinsic value.

Per-share growth = Business growth adjusted for dilution or buybacks

Base Rates and Failure Modes

Before accepting a forecast, compare it with industry base rates and write the specific operating conditions that would invalidate it. Separate temporary volatility from permanent impairment, and update the thesis when evidence changes rather than when price moves.

Expected value = Sum of scenario probability x scenario outcome

⚠ Implied Lens provides market data and modeling tools for informational and educational purposes only. Projections are hypothetical models — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.

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